Last month was a stunning 58 percent better than April 2022, though down 12 percent from 2019. If May sees $950 million, that would be 21 percent better than last year. The one with the biggest potential could be “Book Club: The Next Chapter” (Focus), which opens May 12 and could gross $30 million-$40 million. Seven other wide releases by major distributors wide releases will join these three debuts, although four don’t open until May 26. This will be a far bigger international success, but figure $125 million this month as a minimum, with better likely. That gives it nearly two weeks in the month and the previous two franchise releases grossed between $128 million-$170 million in their first 13 days. The bigger X factor is “ Fast X” (Universal), which opens May 19. “Book Club: The Next Chapter” Focus Features “The Lion King,” the another live-action remake of a Disney animated classic, grossed $544 million domestically in 2019, though the 1994 film was much bigger than 1989’s animated “Mermaid.” “The Little Mermaid” (Disney) takes the 2023 Memorial Day placement with six days of play in the month. Last year had two with “Top Gun: Maverick,” which grossed $176 million over the five-day Memorial Day weekend, and “Dr. May also has three openings that could add significantly more than $100 million this month. Other holdovers this May might add another $60 million-$75 million. “SMB” could easily be the #2 film for this month with the potential for another $125 million-$150 million more in the period. With a potential $300 million take for “Guardians 3,” along with substantial contributions from three other titles, this month could total $950 million. Coming off the disappointing “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” ($213 million total U.S./Canada), guesses are conservative.Įven so, there are two big reasons to project that May 2023 may beat both May 2022 ($786 million) and April 2023. Projections for the “Guardians 3” debut are about two-thirds of that. Last year, “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” debuted the same date to an initial $187 million. Three May openings will give strong hints. 3’ Grossed as Much As the Full Run of ‘Ant-Man’ In 10 Days, ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.
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